When a large number of tourists is no longer a sign of success – an expert explains why

Climate change, growing public fatigue with overtourism, housing affordability challenges, and geopolitical instability are forcing a re-evaluation of the decisions that underpin tourism development. In this context, 2026 marks a shift in direction – the traditional growth model is becoming insufficient.

Prof. Alessandra Priante, President of the Italian National Tourism Board (ENIT SpA), states that for decades, tourism has been driven by the search for new destinations, markets, and travel flows. Still, under current conditions, the question of why tourism is being developed in a specific location and what benefits it creates there is becoming increasingly important. The expert will further explore this topic on January 29 at the international forum in Vilnius, “Designing Travel – What’s Next in 2026?”

For some – flow restriction, for others – freedom of choice

Looking ahead to the coming years, A. Priante highlights an essential advantage for destinations that have not yet reached the threshold of overtourism. According to her, such places have something that many popular European cities have already lost – strategic freedom.

“For example, in the case of Venice, the main task today is no longer to attract visitors, but to manage flows, regulate accommodation, and restore quality of life. Meanwhile, Vilnius has a significant advantage – the ability to decide in advance what kind of tourism it wants and how much it is prepared to accommodate, before facing excessive flows. The biggest mistake for growing destinations is to adopt the success metrics of overcrowded cities,” says A. Priante.

Popularity – not always a benefit for the city

According to the expert, one of the most significant problems facing European cities today emerges when they become too popular among tourists. While the number of visitors grows, residents gradually lose the ability to live normally in their own environment.

“The limit is crossed when housing becomes unaffordable, everyday services start disappearing, and city life begins to adapt to visitors rather than residents’ needs. At that point, tourism’s success comes to an end,” she says.

In such situations, decisions about how many visitors a city can accommodate, how accommodation is regulated, and which activities are prioritized in the city center should not be made hastily or based solely on short-term economic gain. These decisions must be made collectively – by local authorities, residents, and institutions responsible for tourism – and should rely on data, not just emotions.

Tourism success is still measured incorrectly

According to the expert, one of the main obstacles to long-term, sustainable tourism policies lies in how success is still measured. Arrival numbers and overnight stays continue to dominate decision-making, even though they increasingly fail to capture what truly matters in cities and regions.

“These figures tell us nothing about residents’ well-being, the impact of tourism on everyday life, housing, mobility, or public services, nor about the sector’s ability to retain talent and generate real, lasting value for local communities. Even tourism’s contribution to GDP, while important, can be misleading if not framed within a broader social, environmental, and territorial context,” says A. Priante.

She argues that this is precisely why tourism must move from the ‘where’ to the ‘why’—from counting visitors to understanding purpose and impact. And this shift naturally leads to a new approach: designing travel. As destinations shift from quantity-based metrics to quality- and experience-driven tourism, intentional design becomes the key tool for aligning policy, infrastructure, services, and identity.

“Designing tourism means making conscious choices about pace, positioning, experiences, and limits,” she explains. “It is about shaping tourism so that it serves people and places, not the other way around.”

Why Lithuania is well-positioned to lead this shift

In this context, A. Priante highlights Lithuania as a destination with a rare combination of assets and strategic clarity. Unlike cities already struggling with saturation, Lithuania—and particularly Vilnius—can design its tourism future proactively rather than reactively.

“Lithuania has all the essential elements to move from growth to value: a clear vision, strong governance, digital readiness, and a genuine commitment to sustainability,” she notes. “It also offers what today’s travellers are increasingly seeking: wellness and nature, rich history, vibrant culture, and a distinctive gastronomic identity, all rooted in authenticity.”

According to A. Priante, it is precisely this alignment between values, resources, and ambition that allows Lithuania to embrace tourism not as volume, but as a curated experience with purpose.

Experiences that will fade – and why this isn’t a loss

Looking ahead, the expert predicts that tourism experiences based solely on quantity—characterized by low cost, high pressure on cities and infrastructure, and limited cultural depth—will gradually disappear.

“This is not a loss; it is a sign of evolution,” A. Priante says. “The future of tourism belongs to destinations that design meaningful experiences, create emotional value, and respect local life. Those who make this shift early will be more resilient, more competitive, and more respected.”

The leaders’ tourism will need

Finally, A. Priante emphasizes that the leaders of tomorrow’s tourism will need more than technical skills. They must be able to understand tourism as a complex system, master governance and regulation, and exercise ethical leadership in navigating trade-offs and long-term consequences.

“Designing the future of travel requires courage, clarity, and responsibility,” she concludes. “And destinations like Lithuania are well positioned to show how it can be done.”

These topics, along with many others, will be explored at the international tourism forum “Designing Travel – What’s Next in 2026?”, taking place on January 29 at the Litexpo Center in Vilnius. European leaders in tourism, policy, and innovation will also share insights on how artificial intelligence is transforming travel planning and marketing, the development of more sustainable and personalized travel experiences, the impact of demographic changes on the sector, and the creation of more resilient tourism models for cities and regions.

The full program and registration form can be found at: www.designingtravel.lt